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2025
Towards a Common Vision for Climate Security in Senegal (workshop report)
Description:
Ethiopia faces compounding climate, peace, and security challenges that are intensifying pre-existing socio-economic vulnerabilities and institutional weaknesses. The impacts of climate variability, prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, and land degradation, are particularly severe in rural areas reliant on natural resources, leading to rising displacement, food insecurity, and local conflicts over land and water. Climate-induced stressors are also reshaping urbanization trends, migration patterns, and social cohesion, further straining fragile governance systems. In this context, CGIAR’s Focus Climate Security team, in collaboration with UNECA and other key partners, convened a two-day workshop in Addis Ababa to foster a common vision for integrated action across the climate, peace, and security nexus. Bringing together over 45 national and international experts from government, UN agencies, NGOs, and academia, the workshop explored opportunities for evidence-based policy alignment, long-term investment in resilience, and locally grounded responses. Through participatory methods, including a Three Horizons exercise, participants outlined institutional reforms, anticipatory early warning systems, and durable solutions for displacement that center equity, inclusion, and sustainability as core pillars of Ethiopia’s climate-secure future.
Citation:
Villa, V.; Singh, R.; Chepngetich, B.; Takaindisa, J.; Pacillo, G. (2025) Towards a common vision of climate, peace, and security in Ethiopia. 28 p.
PDF Link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175892 
2024
Analyzing how social protection shapes gendered impacts of climate change
Description:
Analytical approach for researchers to conduct mixed-method multi-country assessment of how social protection shapes gendered impacts of climate change. Analytical approach for researchers to pair quantitative and qualitative research in multiple countries, to assess how social protection shapes gendered impacts of climate change. Quantitative approach entails merging household survey data from randomized controlled trials on social protection interventions with external climate data, to assess the effects of climate hazards on gendered outcomes, as well as how those effects change when climate hazards overlap with receipt of social protection. The complementary qualitative approach entails interviewing women and men in the same setting on how they perceive climate change, how they perceive social protection’s role or limitations in helping them adapt, and what changes to social protection could better support them. The combined approach across settings allows researchers to assess what impacts social protection has on gendered impacts of climate change, how and why, what design changes to social protection could do better, and how these patterns vary by context. Photo credit for the provided photo in the visuals section of this entry is: Sylyvann Borei/WorldFish More visuals (and potentially more references) can be provided upon request
Citation:
Roy, S., Hirvonen, K., Gilligan, D., Tambet, H., Hidrobo, M., Mueller, V., Fall, C., Lavaysse, C., Dionne, M., Ahmed, A., Hoddinott, J., Bakhtiar, M., Rakshit, D., Thiede, B., Belli, A., Villa, V., Bullock, R., DuttaGupta, T., Adeyeye, O., Cole, S. 2024. Analyzing how social protection shapes gendered impacts of climate change: IPSR Innovation Profile. First edition, September 2024. Montpellier: CGIAR System Organization.
PDF Link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/159699 
Bridging Climate Change and Human Mobility— Collective analysis for a deeper understanding of climate mobility in the East and Horn of Africa
Description:
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) and Snowflake held a two-part hackathon in London in collaboration with University College London (UCL) (6-7 October 2023) and in Nairobi (23-26 October 2023). The hackthons presented a unique opportunity for IOM to enhance key technical processes related to data collation, compilation and analysis, with direct implications for future use of IOM’s mobility data for climate mobility research.
Furthermore, the exercises yielded valuable insights into into the feasibility of using advanced analytics for climate migration research and the critical challenges in harnessing environmental and climate-induced disaster data. Issues such as spatial and temporal coverage limitations, incompatibility and incomparability among climate data sources, data interoperability constraints, and the spatial heterogeneity of climate data were identified.
The findings can shape future research using IOM’s mobility data to contribute to the climate mobility knowledge base and also serve as a catalyst for improving data accessibility, ultimately enhancing the analytic potential of IOM’s mobility data. This aligns with IOM’s core institutional priorities and commitment to contributing to a better understanding of mobility driven by climate change and environmental degradatio
Citation:
International Organization for Migration (IOM), March 2024. “Bridging Climate Change and Human Mobility: Collective Analysis for a Deeper Understanding of Climate Mobility in the East and Horn of Africa.
PDF Link: https://dtm.iom.int/fr/node/35496 
Towards a common vision of climate, peace, and security in Somalia
Description:
Somalia has long struggled to overcome the social, economic, and political fragmentation that arose following the 1991 civil war and the subsequent collapse of the central state. Since then, the country has experienced repeated cycles of internal strife and external intervention. The role of climate change and environmental degradation in further exacerbating these dynamics has become increasingly evident over the past decade or so. Aside from contributing to recurring humanitarian crises and displacement, environmental extremes also feed into the emergence of natural resource competition and offer new strategic opportunities for non-state armed groups (NSAGs) to further assert their dominance. Efforts to promote sustainable development within Somalia must account for these systemic interconnections across the realms of climate, peace, and security. The Alliance of Bioversity/CIAT’s FOCUS Climate Security team – in partnership with FAO Somalia and the IGAD Centre of Excellence for Climate Adaptation and Environmental Protection (IGAD CAEP) – held a 3-day workshop in Mogadishu to explore the challenges and opportunities for integrating climate, peace, and security into policy and programmatic frameworks.
Citation:
Villa, V.; Schapendonk, F.; Sax, N.; Kenduiywo, B.; Benzid, R.; Nunow, A.; Pacillo, G. (2024) Towards a common vision of climate, peace, and security in Somalia. 44 p.
PDF Link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169331 
Climate Security Observatory - Somalia
Description:
Climate security explores whether climate change increases the risk of armed conflict and, if so, under which circumstances this relationship occurs. People in fragile and conflict-affected areas are also among the most vulnerable to climate change, making it vital to understand the climate-conflict interplay for resilience and peacebuilding. A major challenge for governments in vulnerable, fragile, and conflict-affected regions is managing these complex interactions. Currently, they lack effective tools to implement climate strategies that address social grievances driving conflict and adapt to changing dynamics. In response, conflict-sensitive approaches to climate action are gaining support as mechanisms to ensure transitions to carbon-neutral economies and climate-resilient societies are equitable and aligned with peacebuilding goals. This report summarizes six intersecting pathways between climate, peace, and security in Somalia developed through a multi-methods approach. It also assesses Somalia's current policy landscape to evaluate whether it currently evidences strategic and operational linkages across key policy sectors for climate, peace, and security, and puts forward a set of policy and programming recommendations to orient climate action to mitigate underlying drivers of conflict and contribute to a sustainable peace.
Citation:
Sax, N.; Schapendonk, F.; Kenduiywo, B.; Villa, V.; Craparo, A.; Benzid, R.; Nunow, A.; Pacillo, G. (2024) Climate Security Observatory - Somalia. 21 p.
PDF Link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/170219 
A training manual on inclusive approaches to climate change, agriculture, and peace
Description:
Climate change poses significant threats to Kenya’s agricultural sector, food security, and overall peace. Climate stressors, such as heat, droughts, floods, and extreme weather events, have a negative impact on agricultural productivity and livelihoods, with a potential to exacerbate resource scarcity, and increase social tensions due to conflicts over land, water, and other natural resources.
To tackle these interrelated challenges, it is essential for agricultural practitioners and policies to integrate climate-smart and peace positive considerations. In light of this, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, in collaboration with the Climate-Smart Agriculture Multi Stakeholder Platform (CSA MSP), and with the valuable support of Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, has partnered with the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT (ABC) to create a training course on Inclusive Approaches to Climate Change, Agriculture, and Peace. This initiative aims to enrich the understanding of how agriculture can contribute to promotion of stability and peace within communities confronted by the escalating climate crisis.
It is increasingly clear that climate-smart agriculture offers a holistic approach to transforming agricultural systems and addressing the complex interplay between agriculture and climate change. By fostering sustainable farming methods, connecting adaptation to mitigation opportunities, and building resilience, climate-smart agricultural can play a significant role in preventing and mitigating conflict risks. Consequently, integrating climate-smart agriculture practices with peacebuilding and conflict-sensitive approaches can enhance food production and stability, reduce the strain on natural resources, and prevent maladaptation.
This course illustrates the potential of CSA to contribute to peace through different climate, peace, and security pathways. The climate, peace and security pathways are conceptualizations that show how the impacts of climate change can directly or indirectly exacerbate conflict risks and affect human security. Hence, by illustrating how CSA can positively contribute to each of these pathways, this course emphasizes the potential of CSA as a tool for conflict prevention and peace promotion.
Citation:
Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MOALD).; International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT).; Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Multi-Stakeholder Platform (CSA MSP).; Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT). (2024) A training manual on inclusive approaches to climate change, agriculture, and peace. 11 p.
PDF Link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152342 
How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Somalia? A climate security pathway analysis
Description:
This factsheet gives answers on how climate exacerbates root causes of conflict in Somalia using a pathway analysis. Four main pathways are identified, namely, 1) resource access and availability, which illustrates how climate impacts affect natural resource availability, leading to different forms of resource-related conflicts; 2) livelihood and food insecurity, which examines how climate change impacts agricultural production and livelihoods in Somalia; 3) disaster and conflict displacement, which delves into the compounding effects of climate-induced and conflict-driven displacement on insecurity dynamics in Somalia; and 4) fragility, conflict and exploitation, which examines how climate change exacerbates existing socioeconomic inequalities, political representation, power dynamics and grievances within the country.
Citation:
Sax, N.; Schapendonk, F.; Kenduiywo, B.; Villa, V.; Craparo, A.; Benzid, R.; Nunow, A.; Pacillo, G. (2024) How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Somalia? A climate security pathway analysis. Factsheet 2024. 17 p.
PDF Link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169331 
2023
Econometric analysis - CGIAR Climate Security Observatory Methods Papers Series
Description:
The Climate Security Observatory (CSO) is an online platform for stakeholder decision-making that provides access to a range of global analyses related to climate and security. The CSO is based on an integrated climate security framework that helps understand the complexity of the climate-security interface. As part of the CSO methods paper series, this report details the method used for the econometric analysis.
Citation:
Belli, A.; Mastrorillo, M.; Villa, V. (2023) Econometric analysis. CGIAR Climate Security Observatory Methods Papers Series, 03/2023. 10 p.
PDF Link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131337 
An econometric analysis on the direct and indirect effects of climate variability on conflict. The case of Kenya.
Description:
This study shows that in Kenya climate variability is associated with higher conflict risks. Decreased rainfall is linked to more frequent violent conflicts through an increase in the percentage of stunting children, with each unit increase in below-average rainfall anomalies associated with an 8% increase in foreseen violent conflicts per grid as mediated by malnutrition. More specifically, below-average rainfall anomalies computed over 12 months prior to the households’ interviews are associated with an 18.8 percentage point increase in the households with at least one stunted child. Moreover, malnutrition contributes to an increase in violent conflicts, with a one percentage point increase in malnourished households associated to a 0.4% increase in average foreseen violent conflicts. Below-average rainfall anomalies computed over 12 months do not directly affect conflict risks, but only indirectly through malnutrition, implying that, when considering long-term periods, nutrition insecurity may become a dominant channel mediating the climate-conflict relationship in Kenya. • Findings also suggest that climate variability, when considering shorter time periods, is likely to have a significant direct effect on conflict risks through channels other than malnutrition.
Citation:
Belli, A.; Villa, V.; Haider, S.Z.; Testa, L.; Mastrorillo, M. (2023) An econometric analysis on the direct and indirect effects of climate variability on conflict. The case of Kenya. 25 p.
PDF Link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149277 
2022
AICCRA Senegal: Private sector mapping - report
Description:
This report presents the findings of a private sector scoping mission conducted under the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project, funded by the World Bank and implemented in Senegal by the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, ICRISAT, and ILRI. The study aimed to identify key private sector stakeholders, investment challenges, and opportunities to scale climate-smart agriculture (CSA) and climate information services (CIS) in Senegal. Two consultative workshops—one with private actors in Dakar and another with farmer organizations in Thiès—were held in March 2022 to map the agricultural and financial ecosystems. Findings highlight the early-stage nature of private investment in Senegal’s agricultural sector, persistent barriers to finance for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and structural challenges such as informality, political influence, and limited rural banking access. Women entrepreneurs play a central but under-supported role, facing constraints in land ownership, credit access, and business formalization. The report emphasizes the need to foster trust between financial institutions and agribusinesses, develop inclusive and de-risked financing mechanisms, and promote gender-responsive business models. It recommends strengthening awareness of CSA among private actors, creating incubation programs, and building financial products tailored to agricultural cycles. AICCRA–Senegal plans to use these findings to design a pipeline of gender-responsive CSA business models and partnerships that can drive sustainable investment, innovation, and climate resilience in the country’s agri-food system.
Citation:
Derenoncourt, E.; Jaquet, S.; Ouedraogo, I.; Sarzana, C.; Villa, V. (2022) AICCRA Senegal: Private sector mapping - report. Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa project (AICCRA) 20 p.
PDF Link:  https://hdl.handle.net/10568/119785 
Climate Security Observatory – SENEGAL. Summary for Policymakers
Description:
Senegal has far fewer conflicts than any other country in the Sahel and is considered one of the most stable countries in Africa. However, the south of the country is the scene of the longest-running armed conflict in Africa between the government and separatist groups in Casamance. Although it has evolved since the early 2000s into a low-intensity war that does not pose a significant security threat, it is still a source of instability in certain areas of the south of the country, where rebels control illegal logging and timber trade. While the conflict is primarily related to lower socioeconomic development and resentment of the central government, which has exacerbated feelings of marginalization and increased separatist sentiment, deteriorating climatic conditions and the increasing number of extreme weather events may negatively affect conflict and security dynamics in the country through their impact on natural resource availability and livelihoods. This profile, derived from the Climate Security Observatory, answers: 1) HOW does climate worsen the root causes of conflict? 2) WHERE are the most vulnerable areas to climate induced insecurities and risks? 3) WHO are the vulnerable groups to climate and security risks that should be targeted? and 4) WHAT needs to be done to break the cycle between climate and conflict?
Citation:
CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security (2022) Climate Security Observatory – SENEGAL. Summary for Policymakers. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security 8 p.
PDF Link:  https://hdl.handle.net/10568/127618 
Community voices on Climate and Security: Summary results for Senegal
Description:
This report summarizes preliminary results from fieldwork research conducted in Senegal during November, 2022. It is meant to expand our comprehension of climate-related security risks in Senegal, by examining the way local communities capitalise on everyday experience to develop a shared understanding around the effects of climate change over their livelihoods and wellbeing, along with the insecurity problems they collectively face. Ongoing community-level responses are also discussed, identifying short-term coping and long-term adaptive strategies which have most successfully enhanced local capacities towards managing climate risks, along with those which are currently being overwhelmed. This evidence on adaptive strategies is then used as a base to propose solutions based on collective action, through a reflective dialogue with community members, meant to address climate-related security risks and to challenge institutional structures that sustain the underlying causes of vulnerability.
Citation:
Medina L., Sarzana C., Krendelsberger A., Madurga I., Villa V., Laderach P., Pacillo G. 2022. Community voices on Climate and Security Summary results for Senegal. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security
PDF Link:  https://hdl.handle.net/10568/127617 
Community voices on Climate and Security: Summary results for Senegal
Description:
This memory report presents the main findings of the ClimBeR climate security workshop held in Senegal in October 2022. This workshop brought together over 35 stakeholders from Senegal's humanitarian, development, climate and peace sectors, including government representatives, NGOs, international organizations, and research institutes, with the goal of appraising climate and insecurity linkages in Senegal and targeting programmatic, evidence-based and policy-related solutions to address them
Citation:
Medina, L., Sarzana, C., Jaquet, S., Villa, V., Laderach, P. and Pacill, G. 2022. To-wards a Common Vision of Climate Security in SENEGAL. CGIAR ClimBeR: Building Systemic Resilience Against Climate Variability and Extremes.
PDF Link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/128758 
2021
Assessing value chain risks to design agricultural risk managment strategies: A practitioner's toolkit
Description:
This toolkit provides step-by-step guidance to perform an Agricultural Value Chain Risk Assessment Study (AVC-RAS) at the country level. The goal of an AVC-RAS is to rigorously assess and prioritize the major risks affecting actors along agricultural value chains and to identify the actionable components of an integrated risk management strategy for the value chain, using a gender lens throughout. This toolkit provides examples and tools for conducting a general AVC-RAS with a focus on managing risks in agricultural production systems and improving value chain resilience at national scales. Assessing and prioritizing risks is a main component of a good risk management strategy and can generate awareness and a shared view of risks. There are many components in combining an identified value chain approach with a holistic agricultural risk assessment. Considering multiple actors and risks, their complex relationships, and the potential effects of diverse events on individual actors and larger systems is important. Integrating different sources and types of data for more informed and robust decision-making rocess is also needed. This toolkit provides a structure and tools to deal with these inherent intricacies in an AVC-RAS, recognizing that assessment teams need a high level of flexibility and practicality to deal with the specific conditions in each AVC-RAS.
Citation:
Grunder, M.; Charry, A.; Balanza, J.G.; Villa, V.; Ramirez, J.; Achicanoy, H.; Esquivel, A.; Jaquet, S.; Loboguerrero, A.M.; Girvetz, E.; Grosjean, G. (2021) Assessing value chain risks to design agricultural risk managment strategies: A practitioner's toolkit. Rome (Italy): PARM/IFAD 130 p.
PDF Link:  https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116924
Is climate a “risk multiplier” in Ethiopia?
Description: 
Ethiopia experiences high climate variability, conflict, and political uncertainty while widespread food and nutrition insecurities are common throughout its population. CGIAR and WFP conducted a study to better understand how Ethiopia’s climate, socio-economic, and political risks and insecurities are linked to each other. This information can orient strategies and planning of long-term peacebuilding efforts and mitigate conflict risk in a climate crisis and inform strategies to strengthen the role of food for peace.
Citation:
Pacillo G, Achicanoy H, Ramirez-Villegas J, Craparo S, Basel A, Villa V, Liebig T, Schapendonk F, Carneiro B, Resce G, Ruscica G, Läderach P. 2021. Is climate a “risk multiplier” in Ethiopia?. FOCUS Climate Security factsheet. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. 
PDF Link:  https://hdl.handle.net/10568/115215 
Is climate a risk multiplier in the Central American Dry Corridor? A CGIAR study
Description:
In this study, we investigate the climate-food security-conflict nexus in the Central American dry corridor as part of the WFP - CGIAR project "Assessing the relationship between climate, food security and conflict in Ethiopia and in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC). Quantitative analysis on the impact of climate variability on conflict in Ethiopia and in the CADC countries". Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Climate exacerbates foodinsecurity, poverty and inequalitythat can lead to more frequent conflicts. (2) The impact of climate on foodinsecurity can cascade inmultiple, wider security risks (3) There exist “climate insecurity hotspots” at sub-national levelwhere high level of climatevariability, conflict intensity anddiversity co-occur with otherexisting socio-economicinsecurities.
Citation:
Pacillo G, Achicanoy H, Ramirez J, Craparo A, Basel A, Villa V, Liebig T, Schapendonk F, Carneiro B, Resce G, Ruscica G, Laderach P. 2021. Is climate a risk multiplier in the Central American Dry Corridor? A CGIAR study. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security 
PDF Link:  https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116294 
Assessing the relationship between climate, food security, and conflict in Ethiopia and in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC). Quantitative analysis on the impact of climate variability on conflict in Ethiopia and in the CADC countries
Description:
In this study, we investigate the climate-food security-conflict nexus in Ethiopia and the CADC (Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras). Both Ethiopia and the CADC are hotspots of high climate variabilities, high political insecurity, and conflicts and widespread food and nutrition insecurities across their populations. Therefore, the main research questions that this study aims to answer for the CADC countries: • Is climate exacerbating existing threats that could increase the risk of conflict in the CADC countries and in Ethiopia? • Are areas of high climate variability correlated to high socio-political insecurity in the CADC countries and in Ethiopia? • How can WFP programming become more climate security sensitive? Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Climate exacerbates existing household level risks and insecurities that can increase the likelihood and intensity of conflict. In other words, we find evidence that climate is a threat multiplier in Ethiopia and El Salvador . (2) In addition to climate induced insecurities, there exist other important household level predictors of conflict, such as age, education, and gender of the head of the household, ethnicity, access to electricity and location in Ethiopia and El Salvador. (3) The climate security nexus – the way climate, socio-economic and political risks and insecurities are linked to each other – differs across countries (Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Ethiopia) and conflict clusters. (4) There exist “climate insecurity hotspots” at sub-national level where high level of climate variability, conflict intensity and diversity co-occur with other existing socio-economic insecurities.
Citation:
Pacillo G, Carneiro B, Resce G, Ruscica G, Craparo A, Basel A, Ramirez J, Achicanoy, Villa V, Krendelsberger A, Liebig, T, Laderach P. 2021. Assessing the relationship between climate, food security and conflict in Ethiopia and in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC). Quantitative analysis on the impact of climate variability on conflict in Ethiopia and in the CADC countries. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. 
PDF Link:  https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116292 
How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Senegal? An econometric analysis
Description:
This factsheet gives answers on how climate exacerbates root causes of conflict in Senegal, using a two-stage econometric approach. The findings show how rising temperatures and rainfall anomalies combined with nutritional insecurity can increase the likelihood of conflict in Senegal.
This publication is part of a factsheet series reporting on the findings of the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Observatory work in Africa (Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe). The research is centered around 5 questions: 1. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict? 2. Where are hotspots of climate insecurities ? 3.What is the underlying structure of the climate, conflict, and socio-economic system? 4. Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated? 5. Are policy makers aware of the climate security nexus?
Citation:
Villa V, Belli A, Laderach, P; Pacillo. 2021. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Senegal? An econometric analysis. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. 
PDF Link:  https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116310 
How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Nigeria? An econometric analysis
Description:
This factsheet assesses how climate exacerbates root causes of conflict in Nigeria, using a two-stage econometric approach. The findings show how increased rainfall increases the nutrition security of Nigerian households and that the combined effect of extreme temperature and nutrition insecurity increases the intensity of conflicts.
This publication is part of a factsheet series reporting on the findings of the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Observatory work in Africa (Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe). The research is centered around 5 questions: 1. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict? 2. Where are hotspots of climate insecurities ? 3.What is the underlying structure of the climate, conflict, and socio-economic system? 4. Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated? 5. Are policy makers aware of the climate security nexus?
Citation:
Belli A, Villa V, Laderach P, Pacillo G. 2021. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Nigeria? An econometric analysis. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. 
PDF Link:  https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116310 
How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Kenya? An econometric analysis
Description:
This factsheet assesses how climate exacerbates root causes of conflict in Kenya, using a two-stage econometric approach. The findings show how rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall can have a significant impact on Kenyan households' nutrition security and that the interaction of climate and nutrition insecurity increases the intensity of conflict.
This publication is part of a factsheet series reporting on the findings of the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Observatory work in Africa (Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe). The research is centered around 5 questions: 1. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict? 2. Where are hotspots of climate insecurities ? 3.What is the underlying structure of the climate, conflict, and socio-economic system? 4. Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated? 5. Are policy makers aware of the climate security nexus?
Citation:
Belli A, Villa V, Laderach P, Pacillo G. 2021. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Kenya? An econometric analysis. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. 
PDF Link:  https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116464 
World Food Programme Climate Response Analysis: Somalia
Description:
WFP and CGIAR have undertaken an analysis of climate risks in Somalia and recommended programmes to address identified risks. Climate change is one of the key drivers of hunger in Somalia. WFP is supporting vulnerable communities to adapt to the changing climate and build resilience. WFP has worked with local actors and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) to perform a climate risk analysis of Somalia and recommend actions to manage these identified risks. A special focus was paid to the climate security-mobility nexus across Somalia, and how mobility and security issues through 2050 may impact food security in five key livelihood zones, selected by WFP for their extreme vulnerability to climate hazards.
Citation:
Jalango D., Jaquet, S., Schiek, B., Villa, V., Sarzana, C., Ghosh, A., Hickson, K., Achicanoy, A., Es-quivel, A., Saavedra, C., Schapendonk, F., Pacillo, G., Ramirez-Villegas, J. and Grosjean, G. 2021. WFP Critical Corporate Initiative: Climate Response Analysis Somalia. Cali, Colombia: The Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT and Rome, Italy: World Food Programme. 75p 
PDF Link:  https://www.wfp.org/publications/climate-response-analysis-somalia