This page only includes a comprehensive list of publications, organized by category and publication date. For in-depth information on each output, please click on the corresponding section to access descriptions and full texts where available.
Belli, A., Villa, V., Mastrorillo, M., Scognamillo, A., Song, C., Ignaciuk, A., & Pacillo, G. (2025). Malnutrition and violent conflict in a heating world: A mediation analysis on the climate–conflict nexus in Nigeria. Journal of Peace Research, 00223433251318566. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251318566
Pacillo, G., Medina, L., Liebig, T., Carneiro, B., Schapendonk, F., Craparo, A., Ramirez Villegas, J., Basel, A., Minoarivelo, H.O., Estrella, H.A. and Villa, V., 2024. Measuring the climate security nexus: The Integrated Climate Security Framework. PLOS Climate, 3(10), p.e0000280. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000280
Hirvonen, Kalle; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Leight, Jessica; Tambet, Heleene; and Villa, Victor. 2023. Do ultra-poor graduation programs build resilience against droughts? Evidence from rural Ethiopia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2206. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137000.
Kenduiywo, B.; Mendez, A.; Liebig, T.; Belli, A.; Villa, V.; Achicanoy, H.; Korir, V.; Chepngetich, B.; Pacillo, G.; Laderach, P. (2023) Mapping climate insecurity hotspots: Enhancing climate peace and security decision making in East Africa and greater Horn of Africa. In shaping the future of climate change action plans for sustainable development in Eastern Africa. Nairobi, Kenya. 13 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134672
Medina Santa Cruz, L.; Belli, A.; Villa, V.; Madurga Lopez, I.; Kenduiywo, B.; Pacillo, G.; Laderach, P.; Hellin, J.; Sieber, S.; Bonatti, M. (2023). Climate, peace, and security in fishery management: A participatory appraisal of Kenya’s Lake Victoria fishery. In Shaping the Future of Climate Change Action Plans for Sustainable Development in Eastern Africa. Nairobi, Kenya. 16 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134757
Pacillo, G., Kangogo, D., Madurga-Lopez, I., Villa, V., Belli, A. and Läderach, P. (2022). Is climate exacerbating the root causes of conflict in Mali? A climate security analysis through a structural equation modeling approach. Frontiers in Climate 4:849757. https://dx/doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.849757
Slavchevska, V., Doss, C., Mane, E., Kaaria, S., Kar, A., & Villa, V. (2020). Rural outmigration and the gendered patterns of agricultural labor in Nepal (Vol. 1981). Intl Food Policy Res Inst. https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134190
Villa, V.; Singh, R.; Chepngetich, B.; Takaindisa, J.; Pacillo, G. (2025) Towards a common vision of climate, peace, and security in Ethiopia. 28 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175892
Roy, S., Hirvonen, K., Gilligan, D., Tambet, H., Hidrobo, M., Mueller, V., Fall, C., Lavaysse, C., Dionne, M., Ahmed, A., Hoddinott, J., Bakhtiar, M., Rakshit, D., Thiede, B., Belli, A., Villa, V., Bullock, R., DuttaGupta, T., Adeyeye, O., Cole, S. 2024. Analyzing how social protection shapes gendered impacts of climate change: IPSR Innovation Profile. First edition, September 2024. Montpellier: CGIAR System Organization. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/159699
International Organization for Migration (IOM), March 2024. “Bridging Climate Change and Human Mobility: Collective Analysis for a Deeper Understanding of Climate Mobility in the East and Horn of Africa. https://dtm.iom.int/fr/node/35496
Villa, V.; Schapendonk, F.; Sax, N.; Kenduiywo, B.; Benzid, R.; Nunow, A.; Pacillo, G. (2024) Towards a common vision of climate, peace, and security in Somalia. 44 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169331
Sax, N.; Schapendonk, F.; Kenduiywo, B.; Villa, V.; Craparo, A.; Benzid, R.; Nunow, A.; Pacillo, G. (2024) Climate Security Observatory - Somalia. 21 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/170219
Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MOALD).; International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT).; Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Multi-Stakeholder Platform (CSA MSP).; Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT). (2024) A training manual on inclusive approaches to climate change, agriculture, and peace. 11 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152342
Sax, N.; Schapendonk, F.; Kenduiywo, B.; Villa, V.; Craparo, A.; Benzid, R.; Nunow, A.; Pacillo, G. (2024) How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Somalia? A climate security pathway analysis. Factsheet 2024. 17 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169331
Belli, A.; Mastrorillo, M.; Villa, V. (2023) Econometric analysis. CGIAR Climate Security Observatory Methods Papers Series, 03/2023. 10 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131337
Belli, A.; Villa, V.; Haider, S.Z.; Testa, L.; Mastrorillo, M. (2023) An econometric analysis on the direct and indirect effects of climate variability on conflict. The case of Kenya. 25 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149277
Derenoncourt, E.; Jaquet, S.; Ouedraogo, I.; Sarzana, C.; Villa, V. (2022) AICCRA Senegal: Private sector mapping - report. Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa project (AICCRA) 20 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/119785
CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security (2022) Climate Security Observatory – SENEGAL. Summary for Policymakers. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security 8 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/127618
Medina L., Sarzana C., Krendelsberger A., Madurga I., Villa V., Laderach P., Pacillo G. 2022. Community voices on Climate and Security Summary results for Senegal. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/127617
Medina, L., Sarzana, C., Jaquet, S., Villa, V., Laderach, P. and Pacill, G. 2022. To-wards a Common Vision of Climate Security in SENEGAL. CGIAR ClimBeR: Building Systemic Resilience Against Climate Variability and Extremes. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/128758
Grunder, M.; Charry, A.; Balanza, J.G.; Villa, V.; Ramirez, J.; Achicanoy, H.; Esquivel, A.; Jaquet, S.; Loboguerrero, A.M.; Girvetz, E.; Grosjean, G. (2021) Assessing value chain risks to design agricultural risk managment strategies: A practitioner's toolkit. Rome (Italy): PARM/IFAD 130 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116924
Pacillo G, Achicanoy H, Ramirez-Villegas J, Craparo S, Basel A, Villa V, Liebig T, Schapendonk F, Carneiro B, Resce G, Ruscica G, Läderach P. 2021. Is climate a “risk multiplier” in Ethiopia?. FOCUS Climate Security factsheet. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/115215
Pacillo G, Achicanoy H, Ramirez J, Craparo A, Basel A, Villa V, Liebig T, Schapendonk F, Carneiro B, Resce G, Ruscica G, Laderach P. 2021. Is climate a risk multiplier in the Central American Dry Corridor? A CGIAR study. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116294
Pacillo G, Carneiro B, Resce G, Ruscica G, Craparo A, Basel A, Ramirez J, Achicanoy, Villa V, Krendelsberger A, Liebig, T, Laderach P. 2021. Assessing the relationship between climate, food security and conflict in Ethiopia and in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC). Quantitative analysis on the impact of climate variability on conflict in Ethiopia and in the CADC countries. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116292
Villa V, Belli A, Laderach, P; Pacillo. 2021. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Senegal? An econometric analysis. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116310
Belli A, Villa V, Laderach P, Pacillo G. 2021. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Nigeria? An econometric analysis. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116310
Belli A, Villa V, Laderach P, Pacillo G. 2021. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Kenya? An econometric analysis. CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116464
Jalango D., Jaquet, S., Schiek, B., Villa, V., Sarzana, C., Ghosh, A., Hickson, K., Achicanoy, A., Es-quivel, A., Saavedra, C., Schapendonk, F., Pacillo, G., Ramirez-Villegas, J. and Grosjean, G. 2021. WFP Critical Corporate Initiative: Climate Response Analysis Somalia. Cali, Colombia: The Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT and Rome, Italy: World Food Programme. 75p. https://www.wfp.org/publications/climate-response-analysis-somalia
Villa, V., Belli, A., (2024). Youth on the Move in Somalia: Perspectives, Vulnerabilities, and Horizons. [Blog post] International Organization for Migration (IOM). Published online 04 June 2024. URL: https://environmentalmigration.iom.int/blogs/youth-move-somalia-perspectives-vulnerabilities-and-horizons
Kenduiywo, B.; Korir, V.; Sagliocco, L.; Villa, V.; Belli, A. (2024) Participatory mapping for peace and security intervention in Northern Kenya. [Blog post] CGIAR. Published online 15 May 2024. URL: https://www.cgiar.org/news-events/news/participatory-mapping-for-peace-and-security-intervention-in-northern-kenya/
Nzuki, E.; Kenduiywo, B.; Villa, V. (2024) Climate, peace and security workshop: Implementing cross-cutting strategies for climate resilience. [Blog post] CGIAR. Published online 14 June 2024. URL: https://www.cgiar.org/news-events/news/climate-peace-and-security-workshop-implementing-cross-cutting-strategies-for-climate-resilience/
Kenduiywo, B., Chepngetich, B., Villa, V., Belli, A., Korir, V., Karanja, R., Kiogora, J. (2023). Sowing seeds of change, joining forces to build resilience in agricultural communities by integrating climate, peace, and security. [Blog post] Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). Published online 27 November 2023. URL: https://alliancebioversityciat.org/stories/resilience-agricultural-communities-integrating-climate-peace-security
Villa, V., Rolla, P., Mastrorillo, M., Belli, A., Pacillo, G., Läderach, P. (Currently under revision, PLOS Climate). Unpacking the role of climate variability on displacement in the Greater Horn of Africa.
Villa, V., Haider, S. Z., Mastrorillo, M., Fagiolo, G., Belli, A. (Under revision JPC). Beyond Return: Unlocking Peace Through Durable Solutions for Ethiopia's IDPs
Scognamillo, A., Song, C., Mastrorillo, M., Belli, A., Villa, V., Ignaciuk, A., Pacillo, G., Gotor, E. (Forthcoming). The Geography of Climate Insecurity: Current State and Future Prospects for Northern Nigeria.
Kenduiywo, B., Korir, V, Chepngetich, B., Villa,V., Belli, A., Sagliocco, L., Pacillo, G., Medina, L., Läderach, P., (Under revision , PLOS Climate). Understanding local perceptions of Climate Security hotspots using Participatory Mapping.