Peer-Reviewed Articles and Conference papers

Malnutrition and violent conflict in a heating world: A mediation analysis on the climate–conflict nexus in Nigeria

Abstract:

Climate variability is increasingly gaining recognition as a factor exacerbating risks to peace in Africa, particularly in contexts characterized by weak institutions and fragile agri-food systems. Existing literature has highlighted the intricate indirect pathways that can lead to increasing conflicts following a climatic shock, including reduced agricultural yields, increased food insecurity, and other socio-economic channels that are highly context-specific as well as difficult to quantify. This study investigates the nexus between climate variability (proxied by temperature anomalies) and violent conflicts as mediated by child acute malnutrition in Nigeria. Starting from previous quantitative analyses that implicitly assumed the existence of a singular transmission pathway linking climate variability to conflict, this study employs a structural equation model that accommodates the presence of multiple, albeit unobserved, mediating factors. In doing so, it pioneers the use of children’s nutritional indicators as mediating factors to capture the multidimensional nature of the climate–conflict relationship. The novel approach proposed for this analysis increases the accuracy of estimating the indirect impacts of climate variability on conflict, as mediated by child nutritional outcomes, and contributes to the literature linked to the humanitarian, development and peace nexus. From a policy perspective, our findings aim to inform and support identifying policies and interventions aimed at mitigating the threat posed by climate variability to human security through the nutrition channel.

Do ultra-poor graduation programmes build resilience against droughts? Evidence from rural Ethiopia.

Abstract:

We study the role of a multifaceted ultra-poor graduation program in protecting household wellbeing and women’s welfare from the effects of localized droughts in Ethiopia. We use data from a large experimental trial of an integrated livelihood and nutrition intervention that supplemented the consumption support provided by Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), conducted within a sample in which all households were beneficiaries of the PSNP. We match three rounds of household survey data to detailed satellite weather data to identify community-level exposure to droughts. We then exploit random assignment to the graduation program to evaluate whether exposed households show heterogeneous effects of drought on household food security and livestock holdings, women’s diets and nutritional status, andprevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV). We find that droughts have substantial negative effects on these outcomes, but the intervention serves to consistently moderate these effects, and for some outcomes (particularly diets and nutrition and IPV), the intervention fully protects households from any adverse drought affects. A further analysis exploits variation across treatment arms that received different program elements and suggests that the primary mechanism is enhanced household savings.

Mapping climate insecurity hotspots: Enhancing climate peace and security decision making in East Africa and greater Horn of Africa.

Abstract:

The link between climate change and conflict has been widely studied in the past decade. Despite empirical evidence leading to ambiguous, sometimes contradictory, conclusions, it is generally accepted that climaterelated security risks are manifested through a non-linear and complex interplay between climate threats, sources of vulnerability, and drivers of conflict. The effects of this “vicious circle” are underlined by socioeconomic and political factors acting as drivers of insecurity. Settings affected by fragility, high degrees of vulnerability, weak institutions, social fragmentation and reduced coping capacity are most at risk of environmental scarcity, climate variability or extremes compounding with risks of conflict. At the same time, collaborative responses to stress and crisis are well documented, and the potential of local climate adaptation efforts towards fostering social cohesion widely recognized. The literature on climate security in Kenya emphasizes the role of food systems and small-scale agriculture in increasing population vulnerability or enhancing resilience to climate-related security risks. However, the field has for the most part focused on farming and livestock systems. In contributing to this growing body of literature, this article aims to contribute to a better understanding of the interlinkages between climate change, human insecurity and conflict with a focus on fishery-dependent communities. Building upon qualitative participatory appraisal methods, this research aims to develop an understanding of climate-related security risks that better relates to people´s everyday experience of the compounding risks brought about by climate variability and human insecurity in a fishery context. It also intends to advice programmatic practices on conflict-sensitive climate action. Data was gathered through focus group discussions with fisher community members from the Banyala Indigenous peoples in Busia County. This article categorizes climate-related security risks as experienced in everyday lives and presents community-led policy recommendations for conflict-sensitive climate adaptation in the Lake Victoria fishery.

Rural outmigration and the gendered patterns of agricultural labor in Nepal

Abstract:

In Nepal, as in many developing countries, male outmigration from rural areas is significant and is rapidly transforming the sending communities. Using primary data collected from households in rural Nepali communities, this study analyzes the effects of male out-migration from rural agricultural areas on women’s and men’s work on and off the farm. Using an instrumental variable approach to correct for endogeneity related to outmigration, the study finds differential impacts on agricultural labor for the men and women who remain. Men reduce labor in non-farm work without significantly increasing their labor allocation to other activities. Women, on the other hand, increase their work on the farm taking on new responsibilities and moving from contributing family workers to primary farmers. Despite their growing roles as primary farmers, women in households with a migrant do not increase their work in higher value activities, and remain predominantly concentrated in producing staple grains. The analysis highlights the importance of recognizing the changing roles of rural women, especially with respect to the management of the family farm, but it also raises questions about the sustainability and resilience of rural livelihoods to shocks in remittance incomes